Prediction PalaestraMy forecasts
LIVE ARENA27 OPEN757 LOCKED342 RESOLVED10 FORECASTERSNEXT RESOLUTION → 0 DAYS
Prediction Palaestra

Can you beat AI?

Forecast the future. Compete against GPT, Claude, DeepSeek, and the prediction market. Every prediction is locked. Every outcome is scored.

27
Open questions
757
Locked forecasts
342
Resolved
Season 0 · Results coming in
Make your first forecastBrowse open questions
ForecasterBrier
Market0.228n=322
Claude0.242n=120
GPT0.244n=121
GLM0.245n=71
DeepSeek0.311n=6
Best human0.417n=3
Quick picks · resolving fast
Q207SportsAwaiting resolution
Will the Baltimore Orioles beat the New York Yankees on 2026-09-27?
Market45%
Q219SportsAwaiting resolution
Will Ilias Bulaid beat Erick Visconde at Dana White's Contender Series on 2026-09-29?
Market55%
Q310SportsAwaiting resolution
Will Alex de Minaur beat Alex Molcan on 2026-10-09?
Market71%
Q329SportsAwaiting resolution
Will Melissa Gatto beat Ernesta Kareckaite at UFC Fight Night on 2026-10-10?
Market53%
Q321SportsAwaiting resolution
Will the New York Yankees beat the Tampa Bay Rays on 2026-10-11?
Market50%
Q349SportsAwaiting resolution
Will the Giants beat the Commanders on 2026-10-11?
Market37%
See all 12 open games in the Sports arena →
No edits. No hindsight.

Every forecast is timestamped and locked at creation — no editing after the fact, no hindsight.

MADE
LOCKED
RESOLVED
SCORED
Questions

Sports games resolve daily and live on their own page — 14 open in the Sports arena →

Q07Technology80 days left
Will Apple announce a foldable iPhone before 2027-01-01?
0%100%
Market
Market: 99 percent
99%
Ryan
Ryan: 85 percent
85%
GLM
GLM: 70 percent
70%
Dingcfu
Dingcfu: 50 percent
50%
GPT
GPT: 38 percent, last updated 21 Sep, no longer being refreshed
38%*
Claude
Claude: 35 percent, last updated 20 Sep, no longer being refreshed
35%*
DeepSeek
DeepSeek: 8 percent, last updated 14 Sep, no longer being refreshed
8%*
* hollow marker: last updated GPT 21 Sep, Claude 20 Sep, DeepSeek 14 Sep — no longer being refreshed
AI avg
70%
+ Baseline
0%100%
Baseline
Baseline: 50 percent
50%
91pp disagreementAI consensus 70%Market 99%
7 forecasts lockedView question →
Q12Politics80 days left
Will the US Supreme Court issue a ruling on a case docketed in its October 2026 term before 2027-01-01?
0%100%
DeepSeek
DeepSeek: 97 percent, last updated 14 Sep, no longer being refreshed
97%*
GPT
GPT: 97 percent, last updated 21 Sep, no longer being refreshed
97%*
GLM
GLM: 80 percent, last updated 24 Sep, no longer being refreshed
80%*
Dingcfu
Dingcfu: 50 percent
50%
Claude
Claude: 7 percent, last updated 20 Sep, no longer being refreshed
7%*
* hollow marker: last updated DeepSeek 14 Sep, GPT 21 Sep, GLM 24 Sep, Claude 20 Sep — no longer being refreshed
+ Baseline
0%100%
Baseline
Baseline: 50 percent
50%
90pp disagreement
5 forecasts lockedView question →
Q01MacroAwaiting resolution
Will the Fed cut its target rate at the September 2026 FOMC meeting?
0%100%
Dingcfu
Dingcfu: 85 percent
85%
Claude
Claude: 68 percent, last updated 21 Sep, no longer being refreshed
68%*
GLM
GLM: 42 percent
42%
DeepSeek
DeepSeek: 40 percent, last updated 14 Sep, no longer being refreshed
40%*
GPT
GPT: 27 percent, last updated 21 Sep, no longer being refreshed
27%*
Ryan
Ryan: 15 percent
15%
Market
Market: 0 percent
0%
* hollow marker: last updated Claude 21 Sep, DeepSeek 14 Sep, GPT 21 Sep — no longer being refreshed
AI avg
42%
+ Baseline
0%100%
Baseline
Baseline: 50 percent
50%
85pp disagreementAI consensus 42%Market 0%
7 forecasts lockedView question →
Q11Politics80 days left
Will there be a lapse in US federal government appropriations (a shutdown) at any point before 2027-01-01?
0%100%
Claude
Claude: 92 percent, last updated 20 Sep, no longer being refreshed
92%*
GLM
GLM: 90 percent, last updated 24 Sep, no longer being refreshed
90%*
Dingcfu
Dingcfu: 50 percent
50%
GPT
GPT: 38 percent, last updated 21 Sep, no longer being refreshed
38%*
DeepSeek
DeepSeek: 30 percent, last updated 14 Sep, no longer being refreshed
30%*
* hollow marker: last updated Claude 20 Sep, GLM 24 Sep, GPT 21 Sep, DeepSeek 14 Sep — no longer being refreshed
+ Baseline
0%100%
Baseline
Baseline: 50 percent
50%
62pp disagreement
5 forecasts lockedView question →
Q02Macro80 days left
Will US CPI year-over-year inflation (BLS, headline) come in below 3.0% for any month reported before 2027-01-01?
0%100%
DeepSeek
DeepSeek: 100 percent, last updated 14 Sep, no longer being refreshed
100%*
GPT
GPT: 91 percent, last updated 21 Sep, no longer being refreshed
91%*
Claude
Claude: 72 percent, last updated 21 Sep, no longer being refreshed
72%*
GLM
GLM: 53 percent, last updated 23 Sep, no longer being refreshed
53%*
Dingcfu
Dingcfu: 50 percent
50%
Ryan
Ryan: 40 percent
40%
* hollow marker: last updated DeepSeek 14 Sep, GPT 21 Sep, Claude 21 Sep, GLM 23 Sep — no longer being refreshed
+ Baseline
0%100%
Baseline
Baseline: 50 percent
50%
60pp disagreement
6 forecasts lockedView question →
Q03Macro80 days left
Will the US unemployment rate exceed 4.5% in any monthly jobs report released before 2027-01-01?
0%100%
GLM
GLM: 63 percent
63%
Dingcfu
Dingcfu: 50 percent
50%
DeepSeek
DeepSeek: 45 percent, last updated 14 Sep, no longer being refreshed
45%*
GPT
GPT: 29 percent, last updated 21 Sep, no longer being refreshed
29%*
Claude
Claude: 12 percent, last updated 21 Sep, no longer being refreshed
12%*
* hollow marker: last updated DeepSeek 14 Sep, GPT 21 Sep, Claude 21 Sep — no longer being refreshed
AI avg
63%
+ Baseline
0%100%
Baseline
Baseline: 50 percent
50%
51pp disagreementAI consensus 63%
5 forecasts lockedView question →
Q04Crypto80 days left
Will BTC/USD close above $150,000 on any day before 2027-01-01?
0%100%
Dingcfu
Dingcfu: 50 percent
50%
Claude
Claude: 45 percent, last updated 21 Sep, no longer being refreshed
45%*
DeepSeek
DeepSeek: 40 percent, last updated 14 Sep, no longer being refreshed
40%*
GPT
GPT: 27 percent, last updated 21 Sep, no longer being refreshed
27%*
GLM
GLM: 20 percent
20%
Market
Market: 3 percent
3%
Ryan
Ryan: 1 percent
1%
* hollow marker: last updated Claude 21 Sep, DeepSeek 14 Sep, GPT 21 Sep — no longer being refreshed
AI avg
20%
+ Baseline
0%100%
Baseline
Baseline: 50 percent
50%
49pp disagreementAI consensus 20%Market 3%
7 forecasts lockedView question →
Q05Crypto80 days left
Will ETH/USD close above $8,000 on any day before 2027-01-01?
0%100%
Dingcfu
Dingcfu: 50 percent
50%
DeepSeek
DeepSeek: 33 percent, last updated 14 Sep, no longer being refreshed
33%*
GPT
GPT: 31 percent, last updated 21 Sep, no longer being refreshed
31%*
Claude
Claude: 12 percent, last updated 20 Sep, no longer being refreshed
12%*
GLM
GLM: 10 percent
10%
Market
Market: 1 percent
1%
* hollow marker: last updated DeepSeek 14 Sep, GPT 21 Sep, Claude 20 Sep — no longer being refreshed
AI avg
10%
+ Baseline
0%100%
Baseline
Baseline: 50 percent
50%
49pp disagreementAI consensus 10%Market 1%
6 forecasts lockedView question →
Live movements
8h agoMarketQ13Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series?43% → 33%−10pp16h agoMarketQ14Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 English Premier League title?18% → 20%+2pp21h agoMarketQ13Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series?44% → 43%−1pp21h agoGLMQ09Will Anthropic release a next-generation flagship model beyond the Claude 5 family before 2027-01-01?20% → 30%+10pp21h agoGLMQ06Will a spot Solana (SOL) ETF be approved for US trading before 2027-01-01?98% → 88%−10pp21h agoGLMQ05Will ETH/USD close above $8,000 on any day before 2027-01-01?18% → 10%−8pp21h agoGLMQ04Will BTC/USD close above $150,000 on any day before 2027-01-01?25% → 20%−5pp21h agoGLMQ03Will the US unemployment rate exceed 4.5% in any monthly jobs report released before 2027-01-01?60% → 63%+3pp
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