Resolves YES if the FOMC's post-meeting statement following the September 2026 meeting (Sept 16-17, 2026) announces any decrease in the federal funds target rate range. Resolves NO if the range is held or increased, or if no meeting occurs.
Source: federalreserve.gov FOMC statement
Claude 68% · GLM 42% · DeepSeek 40% · GPT 27% · Market 0%
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The forecast time is after the resolution date (Sept 21 vs Sept 17), suggesting the meeting has already occurred. Given the Fed's rate cycle trajectory - having cut rates in late 2024 and likely continuing gradual easing through 2025-2026 amid moderating inflation - a September 2026 cut seems probable. Historical patterns show the Fed often cuts in consecutive meetings during easing cycles. With inflation likely near target and growth potentially softening by mid-2026, conditions would favor continued easing. I estimate roughly 68% probability of a cut at this meeting.
Forecasting ~20 months ahead from my knowledge base (early 2025), the Fed had resumed easing in late 2024 (target 4.25-4.50%) and its own projections implied further cuts through 2026. Unconditionally, the Fed cuts at roughly 25-30% of meetings; conditional on an ongoing easing cycle, closer to 45-50%. Key uncertainties: tariff-driven inflation persistence could pause cuts, while labor-market weakening or recession would raise cut odds. By September 2026 the funds rate may be near neutral, making cuts more discretionary and meeting-specific outcomes near coin-flips. I land slightly above the unconditional base rate at 42%.
By September 2026 the Fed is likely well into a gradual easing cycle from 2024 highs, but also closer to neutral, making cuts more data-dependent. With the meeting only days away and no current market pricing available, I lean slightly toward a hold, while still assigning a meaningful chance of a 25bp cut if growth or labor data have weakened. Thus a moderate 40% subjective probability of a cut.
By September 2026, the Fed could be in an easing cycle if inflation is back near target and labor markets soften, but a cut specifically at that meeting is far from certain. Conditional on cuts occurring in 2026, they may happen earlier or later depending on data. Historically, any single meeting has a moderate chance of a move, and the September meeting is not uniquely favored except for updated projections. Balancing persistent inflation risk against recession/slowdown risk, I put roughly a one-in-four chance on a cut at that specific meeting.
No change. Monthly CPI is in normal shape and the correct threshold.
Polymarket YES price as of 2026-10-07T20:08:32.901404Z for: Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? + Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?
Uniform baseline: always predicts 50%.
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