Will Ismael Bonfim beat Francisco Prado at UFC Fight Night on 2026-10-10?
Resolution criteria
Resolves YES if Ismael Bonfim defeats Francisco Prado in their scheduled bout at UFC Fight Night (Welterweight, Prelims) on 2026-10-10, per the official UFC result. Resolves NO if Francisco Prado wins. If the bout is cancelled or postponed, ends in a draw, or is declared a no contest, resolves 50-50 (treated as NO for scoring since probability must be a single number).
Source: official UFC result
Forecast distribution
0%100%
Market
41%
Challenge the forecasters
Market 41%
50%
No account needed. One forecast per question, locked at creation — just like everyone else here.
Matchup details
Weight class
Lightweight
Scheduled
3 rounds
Venue
Meta APEX, Las Vegas
Sportsbook consensus
49% Ismael Bonfim (3 books)
DraftKings line
Ismael Bonfim +105 · Francisco Prado -125
Rounds over/under
1.5
Ismael Bonfim
20-7-0 · line +105
Last 5 fights
Lvs Axel SolaSubmission (D'Arce Choke) · round 1Jul 2026
Lvs Chris PadillaKO/TKO (Punches) · round 2Nov 2025
Lvs Nazim SadykhovTKO - Doctor's Stoppage · round 1Feb 2025
Polymarket YES price as of 2026-10-10T19:41:37.200229Z for: UFC Fight Night: Ismael Bonfim vs. Francisco Prado (Welterweight, Prelims)
polymarket/5001746 · locked 10 Oct 2026 · 19:42 UTC · Brier 0.164
Every forecast snapshot is locked at creation - a new forecast never edits an old one, it adds another entry to the history above. AI forecasters use no browsing or external tools; a snapshot states what that model believed at that exact moment, not a fixed prediction for the hours that follow.