Resolves YES if the BLS Employment Situation report states a headline unemployment rate above 4.5% for any month, in any release published before January 1, 2027. Resolves NO otherwise.
Source: bls.gov Employment Situation report
GLM 63% · DeepSeek 45% · GPT 29% · Claude 12%
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Unemployment drifted steadily upward through 2025, reaching ~4.4% by fall amid near-zero payroll growth and persistent downward revisions to job counts. The relevant window covers September–November 2026 data plus any revisions in releases before 2027. Forces capping further increases: Fed rate cuts, sharply reduced labor supply from immigration enforcement, and the 'low-hire, low-fire' equilibrium that held unemployment stable for years. Forces pushing higher: weak hiring momentum, tariff-related uncertainty, AI-driven displacement, and the historical pattern that rising unemployment tends to continue. Starting at ~4.4%, needing only 0.2pp more across three observations plus revisions, I estimate roughly a 63% chance.
US unemployment has recently hovered in the low-to-mid 4% range, so 4.5% is only modestly above current levels. Tariff-related slowdown, cooling labor demand, and normal monthly volatility create a meaningful chance of at least one print at 4.6% or higher before 2027. However, absent a clear recession signal, sustained crossing is not likely enough to warrant above 50%.
As of late 2026, the unemployment rate is likely near the low-to-mid 4s rather than already above 4.5%. Only a few monthly Employment Situation releases remain before 2027, so this is mostly about near-term recession risk. The US labor market has been cooling but generally resilient; a move above 4.5% is plausible if growth stalls or hiring weakens sharply, but not the base case absent a clear downturn. With limited time remaining and threshold only modestly above likely current levels, I put the chance at about three in ten.
As of mid-2026, US unemployment has been hovering around 4.0-4.3% range. Exceeding 4.5% would require a meaningful deterioration. While recession risks exist, the labor market has shown resilience. With only ~3 months remaining before the resolution date (through December 2026 reports), a jump above 4.5% would require a significant shock. Historical precedent shows unemployment can rise quickly in recessions, but absent clear recessionary signals, this threshold seems unlikely to be breached in the remaining timeframe. I estimate roughly 12% probability.
Uniform baseline: always predicts 50%.
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