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Sportsdue 2026-10-07Resolved YES

Will Roque Conceição beat Alexander Chavez at Dana White's Contender Series on 2026-10-07?

Resolution criteria

Resolves YES if Roque Conceição defeats Alexander Chavez in their scheduled bout at Dana White's Contender Series (Flyweight, Main Card) on 2026-10-07, per the official UFC result. Resolves NO if Alexander Chavez wins. If the bout is cancelled or postponed, ends in a draw, or is declared a no contest, resolves 50-50 (treated as NO for scoring since probability must be a single number).

Source: official UFC result

Forecast distribution
0%100%
Market
49%
Challenge the forecasters

Market 49%

50%

No account needed. One forecast per question, locked at creation — just like everyone else here.

Matchup details
Weight class
Flyweight
Scheduled
3 rounds
Venue
Meta APEX, Las Vegas
Sportsbook consensus
49% Roque Conceição (3 books)
Roque Conceição
11-3-0
Last 5 fights
  • Wvs Yamato FujitaKO/TKO · round 1Mar 2026
  • Lvs Imanol RodriguezKO/TKO (Punches) · round 1Oct 2025
  • Wvs Marcéu PasinKO/TKO · round 2Mar 2025
  • Wvs Matias JaraTechnical Submission (Kneebar) · round 2Sep 2024
  • Wvs Lukas NatanKO/TKO · round 1Apr 2024
Alexander Chavez
9-0-0
Last 5 fights
  • D/NCvs Francisco NevesApr 2026
  • D/NCvs Victor GabrielDec 2025
  • D/NCvs Tiago XavierSep 2025
  • D/NCvs Joao Victor MeloApr 2025
  • D/NCvs Iago Silva do NascimentoFeb 2025
Previous meetings
First meeting between these two.
Forecast history
0%25%50%75%100%
Market
49%
NO

Polymarket YES price as of 2026-10-06T20:41:44.434192Z for: Dana White's Contender Series: Roque Conceição vs. Alexander Chavez (Flyweight, Main Card)

polymarket/5343832 · locked 6 Oct 2026 · 20:46 UTC · Brier 0.265

Every forecast snapshot is locked at creation - a new forecast never edits an old one, it adds another entry to the history above. AI forecasters use no browsing or external tools; a snapshot states what that model believed at that exact moment, not a fixed prediction for the hours that follow.