Prediction PalaestraMy forecasts
← Back to analysis
Prediction Palaestra

Market

MarketSports games only · each forecast counted is the last one locked before the game started
321
Games scored
0.229
Brier
−0.021
vs coin flip
—
vs Market
63%
Right side

vs coin flip: Brier minus 0.250 (−0.021 ± 0.017, 95% margin) — a measurable edge. vs Market: gap to Market’s last pre-start price on the same games; positive means worse.

Running Brier score
under 30 games: provisional0.00.10.20.30.40.5coin flip 0.25110203040506080100120150games scoredMarket

Cumulative average as games resolved, oldest first. Lower is better; the dashed grey line is the Market on the same games.

Calibration
0%0%20%20%40%40%60%60%80%80%100%100%forecast probabilityhow often it happened0%–20% bin: 22 forecasts, averaging 15%; happened 18% of the time (95% interval 7%–39%)20%–40% bin: 103 forecasts, averaging 32%; happened 41% of the time (95% interval 32%–50%)40%–60% bin: 140 forecasts, averaging 49%; happened 39% of the time (95% interval 31%–47%)60%–80% bin: 47 forecasts, averaging 67%; happened 79% of the time (95% interval 65%–88%)80%–100% bin: 9 forecasts, averaging 84%; happened 78% of the time (95% interval 45%–94%)0%–20%: 22 forecasts2220%–40%: 103 forecasts10340%–60%: 140 forecasts14060%–80%: 47 forecasts4780%–100%: 9 forecasts9

When Market said a number, how often did it happen? Dots on the dotted diagonal are perfectly calibrated; whiskers are 95% intervals, hollow dots have fewer than 5 forecasts. On average it is off by 10 percentage points. Compare with everyone →

Recent games
GameForecastResultBrierLocked
Will the Bulls beat the Nuggets on 2026-10-12?27%✓ No0.0705.1 h before
Will the Ravens beat the Falcons on 2026-10-12?39%✗ Yes0.3784.4 h before
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers beat the Milwaukee Brewers on 2026-10-12?50%✓ No0.2454.1 h before
Will the Bucks beat the Hornets on 2026-10-11?43%✓ No0.1813.1 h before
Will the Magic beat the Cavaliers on 2026-10-11?38%✓ No0.1412.6 h before
Will the 49ers beat the Seahawks on 2026-10-11?41%✗ Yes0.35431 min before
Will the Colts beat the Steelers on 2026-10-11?42%✓ No0.1722.3 h before
Will the Browns beat the Jets on 2026-10-11?44%✓ No0.1892.3 h before
Will the Lions beat the Cardinals on 2026-10-11?70%✓ Yes0.09331 min before
Will the Bengals beat the Dolphins on 2026-10-11?76%✓ Yes0.0602.3 h before
Will the Vikings beat the Saints on 2026-10-11?56%✓ Yes0.1982.3 h before
Will the Bears beat the Packers on 2026-10-11?53%✗ No0.2762.3 h before
Will the Raiders beat the Patriots on 2026-10-11?38%✓ No0.1412.3 h before
Will the Texans beat the Titans on 2026-10-11?75%✓ Yes0.0652.3 h before
Will the Broncos beat the Chargers on 2026-10-11?64%✓ Yes0.13311 min before

Forecast is the probability of YES as the question was worded. A tick means the forecast was on the right side of 50%.

Best and worst calls
Best
said 8% · it didn’t · Brier 0.006
said 8% · it didn’t · Brier 0.006
Worst
said 17% · it happened · Brier 0.697
Open games
GameForecastStarts
Will the Baltimore Orioles beat the New York Yankees on 2026-09-27?45%Sep 27, 05:05 PM UTC
Will Ilias Bulaid beat Erick Visconde at Dana White's Contender Series on 2026-09-29?55%Sep 29, 11:00 PM UTC
Will Alex de Minaur beat Alex Molcan on 2026-10-09?71%Oct 9, 07:00 AM UTC
Will Melissa Gatto beat Ernesta Kareckaite at UFC Fight Night on 2026-10-10?53%Oct 10, 09:00 PM UTC
Will the New York Yankees beat the Tampa Bay Rays on 2026-10-11?50%Oct 11, 12:00 AM UTC
Will the Giants beat the Commanders on 2026-10-11?37%Oct 11, 05:00 PM UTC
Will Diane Parry beat Anna Kalinskaya on 2026-10-12?50%Oct 12, 03:00 AM UTC
Will Coventry City FC win against Newcastle United FC on 2026-10-12?30%Oct 12, 07:00 PM UTC
Will the Thunder beat the Hawks on 2026-10-12?31%Oct 12, 11:00 PM UTC
Will the Nets beat the Wizards on 2026-10-12?46%Oct 12, 11:00 PM UTC
Will the Timberwolves beat the Knicks on 2026-10-12?48%Oct 12, 11:30 PM UTC
Will the Bills beat the Rams on 2026-10-13?39%Oct 13, 12:15 AM UTC